FEATURE ARTICLE, MAY 2007

The Brave New World Of NIMBYism
Public opposition is changing the face of real estate development.
Patrick Fox

Fox

Opposition to large shopping center development eased slightly in 2006, but Americans remain strongly opposed to real estate development projects in their hometowns, according to The Saint Index. The Index is an annual survey conducted among 1,000 adults nationwide. It was developed in early 2006 as a measure to quantify and track the politics of land use in the U.S. The survey highlights who actively opposes and supports real estate projects and why, as well as where is it most difficult to build today and why? How well is local government doing with planning and zoning? And which land uses experienced the most opposition and from whom?

In the brave new world of NIMBYism, 73 percent of Americans say their community is already over-developed or fine the way it is, of 1,000 adults nationwide (NIMBY = Not In My Backyard). A startling 70 percent say they would use tax dollars to keep land in their community undeveloped. Public opposition to large shopping center development dropped 5 percent from the previous year, but a formidable 57 percent of Americans would still oppose it in their town.

Home improvement centers and department stores encountered about the same level of opposition as the year before, with 56 percent opposed to home improvement centers and 55 percent opposed to development of a department store in their community. When it comes to Wal-Mart, perhaps the ultimate NIMBY target, 68 percent of Americans would oppose one if it were proposed in their community — even though 61 percent say they like the big box shopping experience. Why the opposition to development? The primary reasons for opposition are protection of property values (36 percent) and preservation of community character (29 percent). The environment received an 11 percent response. So, Americans may be defending their communities from sprawl and over-development, but their primary motivation is defense of their own real estate values.

These protectors of the status quo are motivated and organized. They are very savvy and know that there are a number of ways to delay or kill a project, such as:

• Rewriting a community’s comprehensive plan.

• Amending the zoning bylaws.

• Rezoning a proposed big box site, or establish dimension requirements, minimum lot sizes and building caps that make the development impossible, or impossibly expensive.

In many parts of the country, fierce retail competition has led competitors, intent on protecting market share, to help fund citizen opposition to their rivals’ projects, or even publicly oppose the permits themselves. The Saint Consulting Group, which practices the new discipline of land use politics, launched the Saint Index in 2005 to quantify the public attitudes we encounter while working on hundreds of real estate projects for clients across the U.S. and in the U.K. and Canada. For the second consecutive year, we found Americans are twice as likely to actively oppose a development project as to support one.

We also found that U.S. residents are cynical about the development permitting process, with two-thirds saying their local government is doing only “fair to poor” on decisions regarding planning and zoning — and an equal number saying the relationship between elected officials and developers makes the process unfair. An overwhelming 93 percent of adults say a local candidate’s position on development is important in choosing for whom to vote. The new politics of opposition is radically changing the way development happens in the United States. Elected officials are no longer eager to support new development projects in their districts simply to be able to take credit for the jobs and tax dollars they generate.

It is now more politically expedient for politicians to stand with the angry neighbors in opposition to new development. Back room deals are not working as they used to, and politically connected lawyers cannot overcome a room full of angry constituents. Today’s most successful developers are taking the time to understand the local politics. Having a good project is not enough if you cannot get it approved by the city council or local planning board.

Patrick Fox is president of The Saint Consulting Group.


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